The Indian economy grew 9.7 per cent — 6.3 per cent in the September quarter and 13.5 per cent in the June quarter — in ...
...the first half of the current fiscal, and forecasts for the full year vary from a low of 6.6 per cent to 7 per cent.
Q2 data showed that the domestic economy has shown resilience despite the geopolitical uncertainty and fear of a global slowdown.
Even at the disaggregate level, key sectors like manufacturing and trade, hotels, transport and communication clipped at a CAGR of just ...
...2 per cent and 0.7 per cent, respectively during this period while the CAGR for Q2FY17-Q2FY20 were 3.4 and 8.1 per cent, respectively.
The report also points to the muted wage growth at the lower end of the income pyramid, resulting in a skewed recovery ...
...of consumption demand. A broad-based recovery in consumption demand is imperative for sustained growth.
The road ahead will not be without hiccups as synchronous global monetary tightening has increased financial fragility and downside risks to global growth which would impact the Indian economy as well, notes the report.
The report also notes the nascent industrial output growth, which fell to an eight-quarter low of 1.5 per cent in Q2FY23 from 9.5 per cent on-year.
A closer look at the factory output data suggests that eight sectors representing roughly 25 per cent of the manufacturing sector contracted in Q2, keeping manufacturing sector growth at a tepid 1.4 per cent in Q2.
The sectors which were contracted are apparel, textiles, leather and related products, pharmaceuticals, medicinal & related products and electrical equipment.
The agency believes many industrial sectors will face headwinds on the export front due to the growth slowdown in key trading partners.
Noting that services the sector still shows mixed signals, it says growth in ports cargo and railways freights slowed to a seven-month low of 3.7 per cent and a 27-month low at 1.4 per cent, respectively.
Air cargo traffic declined 15.1 per cent in the same period, making it the biggest contraction since September 2020. This has both air and rail passenger traffic trailing the pre-pandemic levels.
However, the financial sector is seeing a strong bounce back with non-food credit growing at a robust 17.1 per cent at a 34-month high, while non-food credit growth is fairly broad-based.