Yet as the Federal Reserve looks to curb inflation, there is the risk the job market may decline in 2023.
“A soft, beautiful perfect landing is still going to mean a lot more layoffs and a much softer labor market,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
“Today is better than it’s going to be six months from now,” Challenger said.
“So I would try to make your moves as soon as possible.”
Job-switchers more likely to get a raise above inflation
“People who switch jobs are much more likely to be getting a raise above inflation than people who are staying in their jobs,” Zhao said.
But with a possible economic downturn looming, workers seeking higher pay face a more complex decision as to whether to stay or go.
“There’s a big incentive for workers to job hop,” Pollak said. Those laws are currently in effect in Colorado, California, Washington and New York City. In September, New York state will follow.
‘Best way to know your worth is to get an outside offer’
People who do not live in those areas can still find pay information on websites like ZipRecruiter, Glassdoor and others, she noted.
“The best way to know your worth is to get an outside offer, which makes the whole thing real,” Pollak said.
Look for a pay match in your current role
“If you can match that, I would be thrilled to stay,” Pollak suggested saying.
“We’re still seeing a lot of job churn,” Long said.
“People are leaving current jobs, finding new jobs, at a rate higher than it was previous to the pandemic, but it’s lower than it was in early in 2022.”
“It’s the way you go out and verify your worth in the market,” Challenger said.
“You do have to be willing to move,” Challenger said.
Admittedly, the decision of whether to make a big career move right before an economic downturn is “always a balance of risk,” Challenger said.
Changing jobs before a downturn is ‘a balance of risk’
“It’s not risk-free to move jobs in the middle of a falling market,” Challenger said.
“But right now you have more leverage than you’re going to have six months from now,” he said. If you never take any risks, then it’s going to be difficult to get the pay raise or job that you want.
For example, if you can negotiate working from home one more day per week, that can help save money on gas or other transportation ...
...costs, Zhao said. After evaluating your options, the best approach is to take an “educated risk,” he said.
“If you never take any risks, then it’s going to be difficult to get the pay raise or job that you want that’s the right fit for you,” Zhao said.