Gold, silver, copper, oil and other commodities all seem overvalued in technical terms and could fall 13% or more from here, Credit Suisse’s charting team says.
“Commodities have confirmed a small ‘head-and-shoulders’ top, and we turn bearish on the asset class,” Credit Suisse technical analysts let by Managing Director David Sneddon wrote in a new note. “We see enough technical evidence to change commodities as an asset class to negative on a three- to six-month investment horizon.”
The analysts argued that:
Oil Could Drop Nearly 30%
Credit Suisse’s technicians see petroleum (CL1:COM)(CO1:COM)(NYSEARCA:USO) as facing the biggest potential decline, with Brent crude possibly falling to as low as $63.02 a barrel – a 28.9% drop from Thursday’s $88.66 level.
“Brent crude oil has now clearly broken below the crucial $92.09/90 support area – the 38.2% retracement of the 2020/2022 upmove – and we expect further weakness toward the 50% retracement at $77.56,” the analysts wrote.
They added that if Brent (CO1:COM) breaks the $77.56 support level, the commodity would next test its December 2021 low of $65.72.
A break below that could send Brent (CO1:COM) all the way down to $63.02 – a 61.8% retracement of its 2020-2022 gains “where we would expect a more sustainable consolidation/countermove to be established,” the experts wrote.
Silver Is Poised for a Potential 17% Decline
Credit Suisse’s chartists see the recent failure of silver (NYSEARCA:SLV) to top resistance at $21.39 an ounce as pointing to a pullback toward a $15.56 support level. That would represent about a 17% decline from the metal’s Thursday $18.71 pricing.
“Above $21.39 remains needed to negate the top,” the analysts wrote.
Copper Could Shed 15.5%
The technicians said that with copper (HG1:COM) currently trading below its 55-day average, “the industrial metal remains in a well-defined technical downtrend. With a large top still in place and the market below falling long-term moving averages, we stay biased towards further weakness.”
Copper (HG1:COM) traded at $7,422 per metric ton Thursday in London, but Credit Suisse’s chartists wrote that a break below $6,844 could take the metal down as low as a technical-support level at $6,300/$6,269.
Gold Could Fall Nearly 14%
Credit Suisse wrote that since gold (XAUUSD:CUR)(NYSEARCA:GLD) has already confirmed a major “double top,” the metal could fall to as low as $1,440 per ounce. That’d represent a 13.7% decline from Thursday’s $1,668.60.
“We expect further weakness at $1,600, then $1,560 and eventually [at gold’s March 2020 low of] $1,451/40,” the analysts wrote. “Only a convincing break above the 55-day average at $1,725 would ease the pressure on the precious metal.”
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